Sweden: Weak trend in imports explains rising trade balance
The October trade balance beat expectations. However, the better than expected figure is more due to low imports rather than strong exports. The trend in both exports and imports is weak, indicating sluggish GDP growth for Q4.
The trade balance for Q3 was revised down by SEK 2.4bn mainly due to higher imports. This shaves off some of the upside risks on our call for Q3 GDP at 0.8% q/q due tomorrow.
Trade surplus: SEK 7.8bn (consensus 6.3; prior 10.4 revised from 11.9; Oct. 2010 5.5)
Exports y/y, current prices: 3% (prior 6 %)
Imports y/y, current prices: 1% (prior 4% revised from 3 %)
Torbjörn Isaksson, chief analyst Sweden